Crédit Suisse: GlaxoSmithKline, résultats le 22 octobre
15/10/2008 - 11:45
- (Bolsamania) - Crédit Suisse est à sous-performer, avec un p.o. de 1090 pence, sur GlaxoSmithKline
• GSK is due to report 2008 Q3 results on Wednesday 22nd October.
• WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR: We expect the main focus this quarter, at the level of revenues, will be on the performance of key products Advair and Avandia not only in the US where Advair continues to see sluggish prescription trends and Avandia saw a big drop following last year's safety concerns, but also outside the US where sales growth turned negative for Avandia in Q3'07. We watch for the financial impact (especially on COGS) of genericisation of Lamictal, Coreg IR, and Wellbutrin XL and monitor any one-off/ bulk sales of vaccines. We will also scrutinize the cost lines for the impact of FX, restructuring, legal costs and asset disposals.
• SHAREPRICE SENSITIVITY: The shares will likely be sensitive to any changes in 2008 earnings guidance (unlikely at this stage of the year) and any preliminary thoughts for 2009 where we think consensus underlying EPS growth expectations of +5% remain too high (our estimate +0%). We also look for comments on the level of buybacks in 2009 (2008 programme was cut from £6bn to £4bn at the Q2 results) and expect a 1p increase in the quarterly dividend to 14p.
• Turning to the Q3 results, impacted by generic competition (Lamictal, Coreg IR, Wellbutrin XL), lower Avandia sales and tough comparisons in Consumer, we forecast Group revenues of £5,700m (+4% reported; -4% CER). With significant gross margin pressure, we forecast operating profits to be down 3% to £1,850m with the margin down from 34.9% to 32.5%. A leap in interest payments should partially offset the benefit of share buy backs to leave Q3 EPS flat in reported terms at 23.6p. This gives 9M reported EPS ahead 2% or -5% CER - in-line with full year guidance.
• We expect the shares to be temporarily buoyed by heightened investor fears over the broader market as we enter the Q3 reporting season.
Copyright (c) 2008 Bolsamania Media Solutions. Tous droits réservés.
Publicité: Tel: +33 1 55 35 06 79
Il est spécifiquement, directement ou indirectement interdit, de rapporter ou de transmettre a une tierce personne tout
ou part de l'information reçue ou de faciliter tout accès à celle-ci - Avertissement légal
Section Analyses
16/07/10
Offres spéciales 
