11/03/2009 - 17:04
- (Bolsamania) - Par les analystes de Citi
Laboratorios Almirall
Takeaways From Breakfast Meeting with Almirall Management
Actively engaged in searching for product/small company acquisitions — Focus on the big 5 EU markets but few compelling cases even in current environment. Likely to see more tail-end divestitures from big pharma which could provide opportunity. Willing to take on more debt (current covenants allow up to 2.5x net debt/EBITDA or up to an additional €400m approx. we estimate) if required.
Dividend preservation important — Management are committed to the 35 40% dividend payout ratio (current div. yield is 5%) and near/mid-term cashflows provide ample support. Only in exceptional circumstances on the back of a compelling acquisition would they consider a reduction.
FDA requires clarification of aclidinium (AB) dose and regimen for monotherapy — A consolidated view on the final development path awaits final resolution with the EMEA. Market update Mar/Apr. Almirall has planned additional trials to include head-to-head with Spiriva to “re-benchmark” the comparator in a more modern trial population which could account for the variation between Ph2/Ph3 performance. It is currently unclear whether new full Ph3 trials will be required for the monotherapy. Bringing the combo product with formoterol to market ahead of the monotherapy would present significant challenges.
Forest remains committed — Almirall believe that Forest will continue to work with it to develop AB and its combinations. Should this ultimately not be the case, further development would depend on it finding an alternative (possibly global?) partner. With AB most likely to be a twice-daily drug, a future combo with Almirall’s once-daily LABA is looking unlikely. Almirall considers these as separate assets and is looking to partner the OD-LABA.
All options to monetise the Genuair device under consideration — These include a joint development with Meda (from whom Almirall acquired the original Novolizer technology) to develop a fluticasone/salmeterol combination product (“generic Advair”). Almirall is also exploring partnerships to develop other monotherapy/combination products in its inhaler.
Current Spanish business to remain stable to 2011 — Management believes further governmental interference in drug pricing/reimbursement is unlikely near-term. Some downside risk is possible from early termination of data protection on escitalopram (although Lundbeck recently won a legal battle in the UK on this product) but there is some upside risk to atorvastatin where legal moves are in place to extend the patent to Apr ’11 (from Jul’10) which would likely delay reference pricing for another year.
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