Novartis: Crédit Suisse à neutre, p.o. à 47 francs suisses
20/04/2009 - 11:57
- (Bolsamania) - Novartis: Crédit Suisse à neutre, p.o. à 47 francs suisses
Par les analystes de Crédit Suisse
Q1 results due 23 April – preview
Event: Novartis will report 1Q09 results on Thursday 23 April (6am London).
View - solid 1Q but consensus needs to come down for FY09E: We expect Group underlying sales growth of 7% as multiple US price rises offset weaker prescription growth. We assume FX will negatively impact earnings by 10%. With the company providing more guidance than previously we see limited surprises in 1Q. However, FY09E consensus remains too high in our view with revisions required to Diovan revenue and the impact of FX. Our FY09E reported EPS of $3.54 is 3% below consensus and our estimates may prove optimistic when financing charges on the recent bond issue are updated.
Pipeline - potential disappointment over MenB vaccine delay. We expect Novartis to be challenged on the delay to US P3 studies for MenB vaccine. Consensus timelines need to move beyond 2012E in our view.
Next catalyst: We expect positive P3 clinical data on QAB149 (COPD) at the ATS conference (14-20 May). We assume 60% probability with an NPV per share of SFR 0.4 per share.
Valuation: Novartis is trading on a 2009E PE of 8.9x, in line with EU Major Pharma peers on 8.8x
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